Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:03:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf856…ab49 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate72%43W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$16
crypto 9% +$1
sports 4% +$1
politics 1% −$4
tech 1% $0
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 60 -2.8% -12.1% 72% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 3% -9.8%
10% -20.5% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses43 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage565d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? Nov 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Nov 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? Sep 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Flames vs. Oilers Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 03 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $5,175 −$5 -0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Jan 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 28 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 26 $18 −$3 -17%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 26 $16 −$3 -20%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Dec 26 $19 −$5 -25%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $50 −$1 -1%
Trudeau no confidence motion passes before April? Dec 19 $1 $0 -13%
Ripple above $2.40 on December 20? Dec 18 $14 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 61d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $36 62d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 148d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 149d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $9 180d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $24 182d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $31 211d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? BUY No 100¢ $6 241d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $15 242d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $32 242d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? BUY No 100¢ $27 273d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $3 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $7 302d
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 303d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $34 303d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $5 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 334d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $28 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $8 362d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.70 · official $50.70 (match) · 129 history records