Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf858…2103 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$5
politics 21% $0
other 12% +$1
sports 9% $0
finance 5% +$1
culture 3% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 15 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.7%
all 44 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage302d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 61¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $37 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $39 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 +8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $41 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $20 −$4 -22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $8 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Nov 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $8 $0 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $6 $0 -5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 22 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $37 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $37 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $39 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $39 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $41 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $41 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $41 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $37 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $22 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.36 · official $36.98 (match) · 163 history records