Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F8 0xf859…a183 sports 619 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,648 (-0%) realized −$12,713 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%357W / 260L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$888per market
Trades / day50.3pace
Fees−$5,642est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$217
14 days−$569
30 days−$4,554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$12,717
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -0.8% -10.2% 59% 56% -14.0%
≤30d 305 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 55% -16.4%
≤90d 617 -0.6% -10.0% 58% 55% -11.6%
all 617 -0.6% -10.0% 58% 55% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 55% -11.6%
10% -18.7% 48% -20.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.5% 37% -27.8%
20% -33.7% 28% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$870) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$469 vs −$692 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$12,713
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses357 / 260
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$5,642
Open positions2
Markets (closed)617 / 619
History coverage60d
Avg bet$888
Trades / day50.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 617 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner LYON 53¢ 100¢ $16 $30 +$14 (+89%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 47¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA 43¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 35¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 45¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner JD Gaming 28¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner LYON 29¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 56¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Anyones Legend 36¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner G2 NORD 42¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 2 Winner TLN Pirates 54¢ 0¢ $322 $0 −$322 (-100%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Sentinels 50¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Misa Esports 76¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner TLN Pirates 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Top Esports 68¢ 0¢ $1,870 $0 −$1,870 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner HANJIN BRION 25¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Cloud9 42¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Natus Vincere 40¢ 0¢ $2,130 $0 −$2,130 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Movistar KOI 62¢ 0¢ $3,260 $0 −$3,260 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 71¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner paiN Gaming 36¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs TLN Pirates 44¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA 42¢ 0¢ $5,040 $0 −$5,040 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 41¢ 0¢ $1,835 $0 −$1,835 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$3 +19%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 +$9 +41%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$2 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$4 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8 +$12 +140%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$6 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $62 −$41 -66%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$20 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $38 +$32 +83%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $33 +$27 +80%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$23 +134%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $43 −$42 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$12 +43%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$9 +43%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$18 +158%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$9 +43%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$11 +40%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $32 +$8 +23%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$20 +50%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$25 +251%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $24 −$23 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$78 +365%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$11 +38%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $57 −$57 -99%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $188 −$187 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $56 +$4 +6%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $216 −$129 -60%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$20 +39%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $24 −$23 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $77 +$23 +31%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $141 +$119 +84%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $90 +$10 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $70 −$69 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 46¢ $5 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $14 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 50¢ $30 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 56¢ $34 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 53¢ $16 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 53¢ $11 3h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 68¢ $14 6h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 44¢ $9 6h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $30 6h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 83¢ $17 7h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 61¢ $6 7h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner SELL Solary 100¢ $10 7h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $11 7h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 84¢ $8 7h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 84¢ $8 7h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 76¢ $15 7h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 68¢ $1 8h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 93¢ $9 8h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 80¢ $8 8h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $8 12h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $18 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $18 13h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $6 14h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $5 14h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $12 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 71¢ $2 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 71¢ $13 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $27 14h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 27¢ $12 14h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 60¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.00 · official $30.00 (match) · 3500 history records