Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F8 0xf85b…48b9 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$279 (+11%) realized +$162 · open +$117
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$406
7 days+$406
14 days+$406
30 days+$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$271
other 44% +$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +31.6% +19.1% 63% 48% +5.4%
≤30d 29 +22.5% +10.9% 59% 45% +3.3%
≤90d 29 +22.5% +10.9% 59% 45% +3.3%
all 29 +22.5% +10.9% 59% 45% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 45% +3.3%
10% +0.3% 41% -6.5%
15% -9.4% 38% -15.6%
20% -18.3% 38% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$52 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage18d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: SC Recife 1 - 1 AC Goianiense? Yes 18¢ 100¢ $40 $222 +$182 (+455%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 42¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $449 +$154 +34%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $500 +$42 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 +$43 +262%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $20 +$91 +442%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $71 +$40 +56%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $81 +$68 +83%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$56 +111%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $162 −$160 -99%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $203 +$155 +76%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $69 +$70 +101%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $39 +$101 +260%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $40 +$34 +86%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $41 +$92 +224%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $110 +$18 +16%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $110 +$6 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$16 +77%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $45 −$44 -99%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 38m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 44m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 48m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 58m
Exact Score: SC Recife 1 - 1 AC Goianiense? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $399 2h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $10 2h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $41 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 92¢ $500 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $16 3h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 34¢ $102 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $41 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $61 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $20 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $51 9h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 29¢ $20 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $162 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $20 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $19 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $39 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $20 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.19 · official $222.19 (match) · 66 history records