Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F8 0xf85c…daba crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$127 (+36%) realized +$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$59
sports 15% +$77
other 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +32.1% +19.5% 56% 50% +25.7%
≤30d 18 +32.1% +19.5% 56% 50% +25.7%
≤90d 18 +32.1% +19.5% 56% 50% +25.7%
all 18 +32.1% +19.5% 56% 50% +25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.5% 50% +25.7%
10% +8.1% 44% +13.7%
15% -2.3% 39% +2.7%
20% -11.9% 39% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$11 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$45 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$81 +786%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$12 +64%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$20 +98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 0¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.33 · official $33.33 (match) · 33 history records