Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:21:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F8 0xf861…832c sports 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$93 (+1%) realized +$80 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate60%36W / 24L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$57
politics 31% −$4
crypto 14% −$2
sports 4% +$9
tech 3% +$17
culture 1% +$1
other 1% +$13
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 -5.3% -14.3% 83% 50% -8.6%
≤90d 18 -3.0% -12.2% 83% 33% -8.7%
all 60 -1.6% -11.0% 60% 15% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 15% -8.9%
10% -19.5% 5% -17.6%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.5%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses36 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage238d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Jun 13 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 13 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? Jun 13 $18 +$4 +24%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $103 +$7 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $35 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $15 +$1 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 28 $98 +$10 +10%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Apr 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Apr 20 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 15 $23 +$8 +33%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 07 $18 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 07 $21 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 02 $23 +$3 +14%
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? Apr 02 $12 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 25? Apr 02 $15 $0 +3%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14? Mar 25 $18 +$1 +6%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 25 $21 +$2 +9%
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k? Mar 13 $16 +$1 +8%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 13 $17 +$1 +3%
US forces enter Iran by March 3? Mar 13 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Player 195 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 02 $23 $0 +1%
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 The Genesis Invitational? Mar 02 $22 +$5 +23%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Feb 15 $22 +$4 +16%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 13 $35 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $1,523 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Red Wings vs. Utah Feb 06 $43 +$1 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 06 $1,587 +$11 +1%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Feb 04 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Clippers Feb 04 $6 +$1 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 3? Feb 04 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 04 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Feb 03 $112 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $1,506 +$15 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Feb 01 $1,441 +$60 +4%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $12 −$2 -12%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 25 $37 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $52 −$7 -12%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 13 $32 $0 -0%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Dec 11 $74 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $54 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $54 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $15 14d
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $18 55d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 55d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 60d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $103 60d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 60d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 60d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $15 69d
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? SELL No 100¢ $15 69d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? SELL Yes 64¢ $13 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? BUY Yes 91¢ $98 73d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 85¢ $16 73d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $21 73d
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 SELL Yes 100¢ $31 73d
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 BUY Yes 75¢ $23 81d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 81d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL No 99¢ $18 81d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 93¢ $21 81d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 93¢ $21 86d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 98¢ $18 86d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $26 86d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 25? BUY No 98¢ $15 94d
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? BUY No 98¢ $15 94d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 87¢ $23 94d
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14? BUY No 94¢ $18 106d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $21 106d
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k? BUY No 93¢ $16 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.76 · official $166.76 (match) · 169 history records