Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:18:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf863…4b1c world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%26W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$5
other 22% −$8
sports 13% −$5
politics 11% $0
economics 7% $0
crypto 2% +$1
finance 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.7% -8.0% 36% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 35 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 77 +1.4% -8.2% 30% 3% -9.6%
all 84 -1.0% -10.5% 31% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses26 / 58
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage532d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $30 +$1 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $79 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $62 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $61 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $27 −$2 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $107 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $32 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $86 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $65 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $56 −$4 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $77 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $35 $0 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $35 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $2 $0 -19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $36 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $5 +$4 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $30 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $26 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $4 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $29 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $17 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $12 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $28 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $31 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $30 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.00 (match) · 328 history records