Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf866…6c65 sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$191 (+1%) realized +$159 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate84%42W / 8L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$468per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$272
14 days+$190
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$335
crypto 1% −$122
world 0% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.2% -20.6% 86% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 24 -2.1% -11.4% 83% 25% -9.2%
≤90d 49 +6.1% -4.0% 86% 51% -8.8%
all 50 +5.2% -4.8% 84% 50% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 50% -8.8%
10% -13.9% 32% -17.5%
15% -22.3% 14% -25.5%
20% -29.9% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$71 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized+$159
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses42 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage92d
Avg bet$468
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 94¢ 100¢ $500 $532 +$32 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $200 +$12 +6%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $743 +$7 +1%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 24 $5,632 +$133 +2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $826 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $50 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $1,357 +$37 +3%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 22 $5,602 +$131 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5,000 +$10 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $860 −$164 -19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $278 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $432 +$67 +16%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $35 +$20 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $33 +$7 +21%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $15 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $200 +$6 +3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $50 +$5 +10%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $44 +$18 +41%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $22 +$7 +32%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $58 −$58 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $184 −$122 -66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $101 +$21 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana G May 10 $200 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) May 09 $59 +$29 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 04 $299 +$15 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $50 +$19 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B May 03 $56 +$15 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $120 +$12 +10%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Apr 29 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $55 +$18 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $27 +$8 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $43 +$15 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $122 +$42 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 16 $50 +$18 +36%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 14 $15 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 14 $30 +$12 +40%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5) Apr 14 $51 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Sta Apr 09 $31 +$5 +14%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $28 +$11 +37%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group S Apr 07 $34 +$6 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Apr 04 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 04 $16 +$4 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Gr Apr 04 $33 +$7 +22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 04 $31 +$9 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 04 $26 −$2 -8%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 27 $3 −$1 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 94¢ $501 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 94¢ $200 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 99¢ $251 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 99¢ $99 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 99¢ $393 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 100¢ $599 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 100¢ $227 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $69 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $8 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $174 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $35 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 99¢ $191 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 99¢ $445 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 99¢ $353 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $499 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $194 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $76 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $194 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $7 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $13 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $95 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $108 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $29 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $91 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $97 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $59 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $36 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $154 3d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe BUY TEAM VISION 97¢ $144 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.50 · official $532.50 (match) · 183 history records