Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf868…7ae6 world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 432d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1
other 25% −$1
politics 12% +$1
finance 5% $0
sports 5% +$3
crypto 5% +$1
culture 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -0.9% -10.4% 18% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -0.9% -10.4% 18% 0% -9.8%
all 29 +0.8% -8.8% 41% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 7% -9.1%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

432d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage432d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $77 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $23 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $11 −$1 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 -4%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Dec 13 $16 $0 +3%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $21 $0 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 19 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $18 +$3 +15%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 24 $2 $0 +15%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? Apr 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru Apr 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 17 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $43 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $39 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $18 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $3 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $17 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.01 · official $43.01 (match) · 97 history records