Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf868…3b45 sports 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,075 (-7%) realized −$1,363 · open +$288
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%41W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$246est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$892now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$165
14 days+$312
30 days+$560
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,123
other 1% +$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +172.5% +146.6% 100% 100% +146.6%
≤30d 58 +7.6% -2.7% 47% 45% -1.9%
≤90d 119 -15.1% -23.2% 34% 34% -17.5%
all 119 -15.1% -23.2% 34% 34% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 34% -17.5%
10% -30.6% 34% -25.4%
15% -37.3% 32% -32.6%
20% -43.4% 31% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$99 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$892
Realized−$1,363
Unrealized+$288
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses41 / 78
Est. fees paid−$246
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 121
History coverage86d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Rooster 50¢ 100¢ $292 $590 +$297 (+102%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner TDK 52¢ 50¢ $311 $302 −$9 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? Jun 15 $95 +$165 +172%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $2 +$3 +180%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $26 +$25 +96%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $472 +$130 +28%
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 05 $74 −$73 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $139 +$110 +79%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 05 $44 −$43 -98%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regula Jun 03 $103 −$101 -98%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $58 +$132 +226%
Counter-Strike: Arch vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Jun 01 $149 −$148 -99%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 01 $25 −$24 -97%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Jun 01 $327 +$210 +64%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium - Map 1 Winner Jun 01 $216 −$212 -98%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $163 +$105 +65%
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $143 −$141 -99%
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 01 $241 −$237 -98%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winner May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner May 31 $47 +$182 +388%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 31 $146 −$143 -98%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 3 Winner May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 30 $174 +$128 +74%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Tricked - Map 1 Winner May 30 $243 −$238 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs T1 - Map 1 Winner May 30 $102 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - BC Game Masters E May 30 $211 −$154 -73%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs May 29 $91 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winn May 29 $139 +$218 +156%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODW May 29 $103 +$274 +266%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Omega - Map 1 Winner May 28 $103 −$101 -98%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) May 28 $83 −$82 -98%
Map Handicap: QoR (-1.5) vs Pigeons (+1.5) May 28 $112 +$108 +97%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner May 25 $93 −$92 -99%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group C May 25 $227 −$226 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 25 $74 +$108 +146%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs 2007 (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions May 25 $4 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Atreides (BO3) - XPortal May 24 $99 +$117 +119%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winne May 24 $211 +$259 +123%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $208 −$206 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $219 −$215 -98%
Game Handicap: VKS (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) May 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs ENCE (BO3) - XPortal Playoffs May 24 $44 +$64 +146%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport - Map 2 Winner May 24 $85 +$176 +206%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fi May 24 $125 +$148 +119%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ALGO Esports - Map 1 Winner May 23 $94 −$92 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport - Map 1 Winner May 23 $119 +$181 +152%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Pa May 23 $7 −$7 -97%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 4 Winner May 23 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs BASEMENT BOYS - Map 2 Winner May 23 $29 −$29 -98%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 2 May 23 $165 −$161 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 53¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 53¢ $135 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 46¢ $136 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 53¢ $161 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $155 3h
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 36¢ $95 3d
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY NRG 35¢ $2 11d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $1 11d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $3 11d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner BUY ASTRAL 52¢ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner BUY ASTRAL 51¢ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner BUY ASTRAL 50¢ $19 11d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN SELL INOX Division 100¢ $602 11d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN BUY INOX Division 96¢ $21 12d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN BUY INOX Division 95¢ $10 12d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN BUY INOX Division 81¢ $81 12d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN BUY INOX Division 74¢ $124 12d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN BUY INOX Division 73¢ $59 12d
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN BUY INOX Division 79¢ $177 12d
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ENRAGE 35¢ $57 12d
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ENRAGE 34¢ $4 12d
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ENRAGE 37¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ENRAGE 36¢ $3 12d
Counter-Strike: RoundsGG vs ENRAGE (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ENRAGE 34¢ $8 12d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos SELL REKONIX 100¢ $250 12d
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea BUY Oxuji Esports 31¢ $44 12d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos BUY REKONIX 55¢ $139 12d
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regula BUY T1 Academy 44¢ $103 15d
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri BUY Alliance Guardians 30¢ $58 16d
Counter-Strike: Arch vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs BUY OLDBOYS- 66¢ $149 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $892.20 · official $892.20 (match) · 347 history records