Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F8 0xf869…e2b4 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 427d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$7,724 (+19%) realized +$11,012 · open −$3,288
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$1,217per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2,538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days+$939
14 days+$998
30 days+$1,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$1,875
politics 31% +$7,316
sports 14% −$896
world 12% −$1,671
crypto 3% +$705
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -21.7% -29.2% 54% 38% +12.1%
≤30d 22 -11.5% -20.0% 55% 45% -1.1%
≤90d 27 -9.0% -17.7% 56% 48% -0.4%
all 30 -4.0% -13.1% 60% 50% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 50% +18.0%
10% -21.5% 43% +6.7%
15% -29.0% 33% -3.6%
20% -36.0% 20% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,016) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$845 vs −$383 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

427d coverage
Net worth$2,538
Realized+$11,012
Unrealized−$3,288
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage427d
Avg bet$1,217
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes 48¢ 32¢ $3,473 $2,295 −$1,178 (-34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ $2,269 $213 −$2,056 (-91%)
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $84 $30 −$54 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$25 -94%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $55 −$54 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $500 +$19 +4%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 22 $116 +$1 +1%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $181 −$178 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $187 −$6 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $392 +$224 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $504 +$199 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $506 +$199 +39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $815 +$388 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $615 +$201 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI" win Palme d'Or Jun 15 $149 −$149 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $2,993 −$2,993 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,016 +$779 +77%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $873 +$298 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $612 +$773 +126%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,764 +$1,401 +79%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $215 +$101 +47%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? Jun 01 $56 −$20 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $2,146 +$366 +17%
Will Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 07 $36 −$25 -70%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? May 05 $9,499 +$2,071 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 12 $21 +$29 +139%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $1,083 −$1,063 -98%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 18 $8,228 +$7,590 +92%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 07 $2,143 +$564 +26%
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 03 $114 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $322 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $200 16h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $359 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down $27 33h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $55 34h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $408 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $519 36h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $118 46h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 14¢ $118 46h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $181 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $182 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $187 2d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $509 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $508 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,203 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $815 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $815 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $615 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $615 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $392 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $500 4d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $302 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $703 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $705 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 6d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $204 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $329 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,537.84 · official $2,539.55 (match) · 97 history records