Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf869…118f crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$345 (-4%) realized −$345 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 31L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$122
14 days−$121
30 days−$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$2
other 33% −$4
sports 6% −$406
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -78.0% -80.1% 12% 8% -18.8%
≤30d 44 -50.6% -55.3% 30% 5% -13.9%
≤90d 44 -50.6% -55.3% 30% 5% -13.9%
all 44 -50.6% -55.3% 30% 5% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.3% 5% -13.9%
10% -59.6% 2% -22.1%
15% -63.5% 2% -29.7%
20% -67.1% 2% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$345
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage26d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $62 −$61 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $25 +$15 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $19 −$18 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $9 −$9 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $49 +$10 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $29 −$29 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $18 −$2 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $462 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $462 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $296 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $320 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $460 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $484 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $289 −$285 -99%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $533 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $530 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $502 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $484 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $515 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $514 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $561 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $460 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $170 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $62 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 22h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $25 24h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $19 41h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $9 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $49 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $29 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 55¢ $16 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $18 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $462 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $481 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records