Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf86b…f471 crypto 735 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (176 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$333 (-13%) realized −$333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%276W / 459L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day176.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (176 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 735 -11.7% -20.1% 38% 35% -22.8%
≤30d 735 -11.7% -20.1% 38% 35% -22.8%
≤90d 735 -11.7% -20.1% 38% 35% -22.8%
all 735 -11.7% -20.1% 38% 35% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover176.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 35% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 34% -30.1%
15% -34.7% 34% -36.9%
20% -41.1% 33% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses276 / 459
Open positions0
Markets (closed)735 / 735
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day176.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 735 Trades
no open positions (432 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1380 history records