Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:33:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf86c…abfa other 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,028 (-5%) realized −$1,025 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate70%188W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$39
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$342
sports 32% −$102
crypto 21% −$795
tech 2% +$126
economics 1% +$6
politics 1% +$49
world 1% +$25
culture 1% +$18
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +19.5% +8.1% 75% 70% +17.1%
≤30d 30 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 63% +17.3%
≤90d 30 +11.0% +0.4% 67% 63% +17.3%
all 269 +4.2% -5.7% 70% 42% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 42% -14.2%
10% -14.7% 26% -22.4%
15% -23.0% 20% -29.9%
20% -30.5% 12% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$40 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$1,025
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses188 / 81
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)269 / 294
History coverage229d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 17¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-55%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 46¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 71¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 27¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $37 +$13 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $20 +$17 +86%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +181%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +145%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +39%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Elon register any party before 2027? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $29 +$12 +41%
Will MrBeast hit 105 billion views by December 31? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +45%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 14 $154 −$154 -100%
Knicks vs. Magic Dec 14 $113 +$41 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Dec 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Marist Red Foxes vs. Bryant Bulldogs Dec 13 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Dec 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $147 +$6 +4%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $191 −$181 -95%
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $100 +$37 +37%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $78 +$7 +9%
Will Vitória SC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Cesena FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $46 +$3 +7%
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC end in a draw? Dec 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Wrexham AFC vs. Watford FC end in a draw? Dec 13 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $103 +$5 +5%
Will US Cremonese win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $100 +$7 +7%
Cavaliers vs. Wizards Dec 13 $280 +$23 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 3m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21 BUY 40¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 73¢ $37 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 53¢ $20 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 22h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 8¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $16 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 87¢ $10 45h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $3 45h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 90¢ $12 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 81¢ $3 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 28¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 13¢ $0 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $3 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 14¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 56¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $1 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 2¢ $1 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.03 · official $65.53 · 664 history records