Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf870…7c32 sports 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$214 (-14%) realized −$210 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%35W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day81.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$122
other 40% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 46% -23.5%
≤30d 71 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 46% -23.5%
≤90d 71 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 46% -23.5%
all 71 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 46% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 46% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 34% -30.8%
15% -28.6% 28% -37.5%
20% -35.6% 21% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$210
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses35 / 36
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day81.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs CYBERSHOKE Esports 45¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Team Nemesis 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $37 +$21 +57%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $3 +$1 +42%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $2 +$3 +226%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $5 +$2 +45%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$8 +138%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 $0 -4%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $32 −$22 -70%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $4 +$1 +18%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $5 +$7 +140%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1 +$2 +146%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 −$1 -11%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $1 +$1 +73%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $190 −$190 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $44 −$40 -90%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $7 +$3 +35%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $4 −$1 -33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $3 +$2 +57%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $2 $0 +11%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $3 +$1 +32%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $10 +$3 +30%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1 +$1 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $29 +$14 +48%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $16 −$9 -58%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$84 +275%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $186 −$145 -78%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $131 −$1 -1%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $25 −$12 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 47¢ $1 6m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 43¢ $1 9m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 62¢ $3 58m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 84¢ $4 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 81¢ $8 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 81¢ $2 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 28¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 28¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 35¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 90¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 88¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 93¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 87¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 60¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $3 17h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 30¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 45¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 46¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 47¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 64¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 42¢ $1 18h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $3 18h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 43¢ $2 22h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $1 22h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 45¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.36 · official $1.36 (match) · 326 history records