Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F8 0xf874…def4 sports 557 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,778 (-8%) realized −$1,864 · open +$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%305W / 251L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days−$925
14 days+$49
30 days−$777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,792
other 17% +$148
weather 5% −$234
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -3.9% -13.1% 59% 59% -28.3%
≤30d 222 +10.1% -0.4% 57% 55% -14.4%
≤90d 556 -0.3% -9.8% 55% 54% -17.8%
all 556 -0.3% -9.8% 55% 54% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 54% -17.8%
10% -18.4% 49% -25.7%
15% -26.3% 40% -32.9%
20% -33.5% 33% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$40 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$1,864
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses305 / 251
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions1
Markets (closed)556 / 557
History coverage65d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 556 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Kansas City Royals 54¢ 99¢ $100 $186 +$86 (+86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $152 +$114 +75%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $243 −$243 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $221 −$221 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $133 +$119 +90%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $327 +$331 +101%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $234 −$234 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $141 +$138 +98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $196 −$196 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $101 +$44 +44%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $157 +$36 +23%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $101 +$53 +52%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $158 −$158 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $586 +$468 +80%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $15 +$6 +39%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $208 −$208 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $593 −$570 -96%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $16 +$8 +49%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $22 +$12 +53%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $325 −$297 -91%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $6 +$5 +76%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $22 +$5 +24%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +40%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $21 +$20 +95%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 13 $11 +$4 +40%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 13 $23 +$8 +33%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $26 +$4 +14%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +134%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 13 $22 +$17 +79%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $124 +$120 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $194 +$148 +76%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $206 +$192 +93%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $58 +$61 +105%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $169 +$157 +93%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $193 +$259 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 1h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 59¢ $51 1h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $51 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $32 36h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 36h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 36h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $39 46h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $51 46h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $51 46h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $51 46h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $51 46h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $19 46h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $51 46h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $51 46h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $51 46h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $51 46h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $7 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $51 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $23 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $51 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $51 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $51 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $51 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $51 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.04 · official $185.67 (match) · 1394 history records