Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:06:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf875…814d weather 471 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$305 (-1%) realized −$283 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%253W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,041now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$449
7 days−$345
14 days−$65
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 56% +$334
sports 20% −$700
politics 10% −$193
other 6% +$298
crypto 3% −$81
finance 2% +$34
world 2% −$164
tech 1% −$44
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -11.2% -19.7% 62% 34% -12.7%
≤30d 177 -5.7% -14.6% 67% 33% -10.1%
≤90d 298 -10.4% -19.0% 57% 36% -11.5%
all 467 -7.1% -16.0% 54% 39% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 39% -11.2%
10% -24.0% 30% -19.7%
15% -31.4% 22% -27.4%
20% -38.1% 17% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$1,041
Realized−$283
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses253 / 214
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions3
Markets (closed)467 / 471
History coverage200d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 467 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? No 93¢ 92¢ $660 $653 −$7 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 74¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 78¢ $203 $192 −$11 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 −$26 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $149 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $382 +$19 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 18 $305 −$45 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $344 +$53 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $209 +$20 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $303 −$300 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +117%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $403 +$130 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $179 +$31 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $301 +$41 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $46 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $180 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $425 +$21 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Justin Kluivert: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Memphis Depay: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $603 +$119 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $403 +$116 +29%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 −$135 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $72 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $81 −$5 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $83 −$81 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $160 +$7 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? Jun 15 $90 +$14 +16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 −$68 -69%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 +$50 +101%
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $51 +$8 +15%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$33 +33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$10 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $302 −$222 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $163 +$57 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $422 −$19 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $324 +$33 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $238 +$10 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $82 +$19 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $185 +$70 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 13 $20 −$16 -79%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $191 +$23 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $109 +$54 +49%
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $201 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $75 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $243 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $130 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $70 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $302 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $79 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 60¢ $197 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $663 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $397 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 45¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 49¢ $13 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 19? SELL No 64¢ $63 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 60¢ $21 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $229 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $306 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $116 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,041.15 · official $1,043.79 (match) · 2033 history records