Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F8 0xf87a…36ea sports 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$419 (+1%) realized +$419 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%80W / 52L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$806
7 days−$907
14 days−$1,023
30 days−$1,023
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$809
sports 15% +$90
other 6% −$236
world 1% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +16.4% +5.3% 60% 43% -12.3%
≤30d 132 +11.7% +1.1% 61% 46% -12.3%
≤90d 132 +11.7% +1.1% 61% 46% -12.3%
all 132 +11.7% +1.1% 61% 46% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 46% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 36% -20.7%
15% -17.4% 26% -28.4%
20% -25.5% 20% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$100 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$419
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses80 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage11d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 0¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $12 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $18 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $18 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $87 −$73 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $2,523 −$2,502 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $2,317 +$258 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $1,633 +$648 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $1,507 +$105 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $1,502 +$28 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $1,311 +$176 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $1,210 +$160 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $1,103 +$43 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $510 −$393 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $1,407 +$94 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $1,310 +$147 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $163 −$163 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $1,309 +$136 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $1,006 +$85 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $1,114 +$228 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $903 +$46 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $807 +$107 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $402 +$22 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $609 +$162 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $709 −$209 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $305 −$38 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $706 +$99 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $501 +$18 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $581 +$12 +2%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $701 +$39 +6%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $59 −$59 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $12 +$8 +67%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $25 −$6 -25%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -90%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $8 +$12 +150%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $19 +$21 +113%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $24 −$20 -84%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 25 $1 +$3 +181%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $60 +$6 +11%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $19 +$22 +117%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $50 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $16 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $7 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $9 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $8 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $13 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $87 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $188 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2,028 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $307 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2,174 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $143 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1,633 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1,507 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1,311 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1,210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1,103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $117 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.41 (match) · 378 history records