Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:32:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf87b…5294 sports 212 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$146 (-1%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%92W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days+$73
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$16
other 34% −$310
crypto 4% −$15
world 1% −$9
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.6% -14.6% 75% 75% -6.3%
≤30d 16 -5.6% -14.6% 75% 75% -6.3%
≤90d 211 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 36% -11.4%
all 211 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 36% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 36% -11.4%
10% -20.0% 19% -19.9%
15% -27.7% 9% -27.6%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses92 / 119
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage68d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $328 $328 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$20 +20%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $101 +$26 +26%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $287 +$131 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $196 +$90 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $256 +$58 +23%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $67 −$63 -94%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $64 +$3 +4%
Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 3.5 May 09 $226 −$218 -97%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5 May 08 $241 −$15 -6%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 May 08 $256 −$15 -6%
Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 May 08 $205 +$51 +25%
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5 May 08 $179 +$25 +14%
Will Wadi Degla SC win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $194 −$14 -7%
Carabobo FC vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5 May 08 $157 +$36 +23%
Mirassol FC vs. LDU de Quito: O/U 3.5 May 07 $101 +$27 +26%
O'Higgins FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5 May 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ismaily SC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $101 +$20 +20%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $101 −$3 -2%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5 May 07 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $101 −$3 -3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 07 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $51 −$51 -100%
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: O/U 1.5 May 07 $50 −$37 -72%
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5 May 07 $50 +$23 +46%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5 May 07 $50 +$13 +26%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 May 07 $50 −$3 -5%
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $50 −$3 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $50 −$2 -4%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 May 06 $50 −$2 -4%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club end in a draw? May 06 $50 −$2 -3%
Will CSyD Macará vs. CA Tigre end in a draw? May 06 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw? May 06 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $50 −$29 -57%
76ers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline May 06 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino end in a draw? May 06 $50 −$2 -4%
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5 May 06 $50 −$31 -61%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 4.5 May 06 $50 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $329 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 85¢ $100 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 11h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 12h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 79¢ $101 37h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 39h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $287 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $196 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $114 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $100 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $118 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $100 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $101 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $119 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $101 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 94¢ $314 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $256 6d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes $4 36d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $67 36d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $66 37d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $64 37d
Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 3.5 SELL Under $7 47d
Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $226 47d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 76¢ $226 47d
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 80¢ $241 47d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 71¢ $241 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.66 · official $327.66 (match) · 628 history records