Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf87c…cfcb weather 425 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (332 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,546 (+4%) realized +$2,507 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%400W / 9L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day332.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$355
7 days+$868
14 days+$543
30 days+$543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$582
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (332 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 312 +1.2% -8.4% 99% 2% -7.7%
≤30d 409 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 2% -8.7%
≤90d 409 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 2% -8.7%
all 409 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover332.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 2% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$118 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,248
Realized+$2,507
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses400 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)409 / 425
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$149
Trades / day332.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 409 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $391 $411 +$20 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 15? No 90¢ 95¢ $248 $264 +$16 (+6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $162 $168 +$6 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Yes 99¢ 93¢ $104 $97 −$7 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $53 $54 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? No 97¢ 98¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 16? No 97¢ 99¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $237 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 16? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $144 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C or higher on June Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 83°F or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C or higher on June Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $163 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $188 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,497 +$86 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $311 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $192 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $93 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $384 +$18 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $645 +$44 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $195 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 15 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $292 +$7 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $288 +$11 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 1m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 1m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 4m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $75 4m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $144 5m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $125 6m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 7m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 7m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 8m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $53 9m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 10m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 10m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $55 11m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 11m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $12 13m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $17 13m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $21 13m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $18 14m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $31 14m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $19 14m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $25 14m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $50 19m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $10 19m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $45 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $34 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $46 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $14 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $85 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,248.43 · official $1,248.43 (match) · 3500 history records