Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F8 0xf87c…8c97 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$303 (+8%) realized +$231 · open +$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$313
sports 18% +$127
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 50% -2.3%
≤30d 14 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 50% -2.3%
≤90d 14 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 50% -2.3%
all 14 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 50% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 50% -2.3%
10% -21.6% 43% -11.6%
15% -29.2% 43% -20.1%
20% -36.1% 29% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$123 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$899
Realized+$231
Unrealized+$199
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 94¢ $500 $899 +$399 (+80%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Yes 10¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $189 +$128 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $502 +$80 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $760 +$347 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $254 −$250 -99%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$238 +156%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $26 −$23 -89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $252 +$110 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$120 +234%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 4h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 11h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $101 11h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $189 11h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $582 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 85¢ $502 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,107 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $355 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $405 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $254 2d
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $391 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2¢ $3 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $26 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $153 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $362 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $171 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 29¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $899.31 · official $899.31 (match) · 27 history records