Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf87c…3a3a sports 23 markets active 12h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$87 (-4%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate74%17W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days−$32
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$33
sports 45% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +17.2% +6.0% 72% 72% +4.5%
≤30d 20 +19.8% +8.4% 75% 75% +5.5%
≤90d 20 +19.8% +8.4% 75% 75% +5.5%
all 23 +14.4% +3.5% 74% 74% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 74% +4.7%
10% -6.4% 61% -5.3%
15% -15.4% 57% -14.5%
20% -23.7% 22% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$97 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses17 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage236d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $197 +$94 +48%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $135 +$62 +46%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $374 −$267 -71%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $243 +$133 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$14 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $60 −$36 -59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$20 +50%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $167 +$77 +46%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $221 −$180 -81%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $100 −$81 -81%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$22 +43%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$6 -61%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$11 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$19 +36%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Oct 31 $11 +$2 +21%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $26 −$15 -58%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $7 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $197 11h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $135 38h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $374 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $245 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $66 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $42 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 17¢ $20 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $120 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $72 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records