Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf87f…0846 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$215 (-17%) realized −$203 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -40.4% -46.1% 15% 15% -61.6%
≤30d 13 -40.4% -46.1% 15% 15% -61.6%
≤90d 13 -40.4% -46.1% 15% 15% -61.6%
all 13 -40.4% -46.1% 15% 15% -61.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.1% 15% -61.6%
10% -51.3% 15% -65.3%
15% -56.0% 8% -68.6%
20% -60.3% 8% -71.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$24 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$875
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $303 $300 −$3 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $217 $212 −$5 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $5 +$28 +550%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$24 +24%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $192 −$187 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $37 43m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 45m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $206 46m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $171 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $874.66 · official $874.66 (match) · 29 history records