Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F8 0xf885…477b other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$975 (+21%) realized +$984 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$2,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$1,039
sports 2% +$332
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+61.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +78.9% +61.8% 86% 86% +44.2%
≤30d 7 +78.9% +61.8% 86% 86% +44.2%
≤90d 7 +78.9% +61.8% 86% 86% +44.2%
all 7 +78.9% +61.8% 86% 86% +44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.8% 86% +44.2%
10% +46.4% 71% +30.4%
15% +32.2% 57% +17.8%
20% +19.3% 57% +6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$100 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.81 per $1 lost it wins $14.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,191
Realized+$984
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $500 $512 +$12 (+2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $400 $391 −$9 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $509 +$654 +129%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $809 +$211 +26%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 +$131 +65%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 +$332 +325%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $501 +$54 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $405 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $102 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,019 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $404 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 39h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $809 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,190.81 · official $2,190.88 (match) · 20 history records