Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F8 0xf885…d719 crypto 599 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$221 (+1%) realized +$118 · open +$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate62%338W / 204L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day66.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,833now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$184
14 days+$400
30 days+$427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$67
crypto 32% +$147
other 16% +$122
politics 12% +$232
tech 4% −$25
culture 1% +$34
finance 1% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +17.5% +6.3% 88% 15% -3.1%
≤30d 121 +3.8% -6.1% 79% 21% -6.5%
≤90d 542 -4.1% -13.3% 62% 23% -7.7%
all 542 -4.1% -13.3% 62% 23% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 23% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 19% -16.6%
15% -29.1% 16% -24.6%
20% -36.1% 14% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$2,833
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses338 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions57
Markets (closed)542 / 599
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day66.8
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 57 History 542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 94¢ $148 $169 +$22 (+15%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $133 $140 +$7 (+5%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $129 $135 +$6 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 87¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $111 $122 +$11 (+10%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 99¢ $103 $120 +$17 (+16%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-1%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $115 $117 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 39¢ 36¢ $122 $111 −$11 (-9%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 51¢ 100¢ $51 $100 +$49 (+95%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 39¢ 52¢ $71 $94 +$23 (+32%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 91¢ 94¢ $83 $86 +$3 (+3%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $62 $71 +$9 (+14%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 61¢ 74¢ $54 $67 +$12 (+22%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $55 $61 +$7 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 69¢ $63 $60 −$4 (-6%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 98¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 93¢ 96¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 72¢ 70¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 84¢ $47 $48 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $144 +$7 +5%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Jun 26 $21 +$72 +343%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $181 +$12 +6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 24 $7 $0 +5%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $296 +$36 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 23 $46 +$14 +32%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 22 $55 −$17 -30%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $7 +$1 +10%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $61 −$1 -1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $569 +$10 +2%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $50 +$3 +5%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $27 +$3 +10%
Starmer out by June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $150 +$14 +9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $222 +$15 +6%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $206 −$7 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 21 $35 +$1 +2%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 20 $52 +$4 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $39 +$1 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $63 +$13 +20%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $115 −$2 -1%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $120 +$35 +29%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $142 +$5 +4%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $42 −$27 -64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $63 −$2 -4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $150 −$63 -42%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $172 +$6 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $192 +$19 +10%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $147 +$137 +93%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $61 −$10 -17%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $757 +$11 +1%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $52 −$25 -47%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $92 +$7 +7%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $152 +$17 +11%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $33 +$40 +120%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $81 +$7 +8%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $99 +$14 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $113 +$8 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5m
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5m
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 21m
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 21m
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? BUY No 13¢ $27 55m
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $39 2h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 2h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 61¢ $4 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 61¢ $51 3h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $32 9h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 10h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? SELL No 93¢ $93 12h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 12h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 13h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 13h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 13h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 13h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 13h
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $50 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,832.79 · official $2,832.62 (match) · 3500 history records