Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:21:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf887…c836 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 376d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
other 35% +$4
politics 13% −$3
economics 5% $0
culture 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -2.1% -11.4% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -2.1% -11.4% 14% 0% -9.9%
all 38 +5.6% -4.4% 37% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 3% -9.7%
10% -13.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -21.9% 3% -26.2%
20% -29.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

376d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage376d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $67 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $33 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $13 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $2 $0 -1%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 08 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $18 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 05 $1 +$4 +250%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 02 $36 −$3 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $4 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Starmer out before July? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $34 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $34 30h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $31 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $31 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $31 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $31 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $17 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $13 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $19 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $15 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $17 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $35 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records