Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf887…db68 sports 219 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,814 (-2%) realized −$1,712 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate53%108W / 96L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$160est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$3,746
14 days−$3,746
30 days−$3,741
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$1,447
other 37% −$614
world 11% +$63
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -34.3% -40.6% 28% 27% -41.0%
≤30d 82 -33.2% -39.6% 29% 28% -40.9%
≤90d 124 -10.7% -19.2% 37% 36% -17.3%
all 204 -9.7% -18.3% 53% 25% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 25% -11.8%
10% -26.1% 23% -20.2%
15% -33.3% 23% -27.9%
20% -39.8% 22% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$101 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized−$1,712
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses108 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions7
Markets (closed)204 / 219
History coverage126d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 72¢ $98 $127 +$29 (+30%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 20¢ $98 $39 −$59 (-61%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ 28¢ $49 $38 −$11 (-22%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 28¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 24¢ $49 $30 −$19 (-39%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 29¢ 6¢ $49 $9 −$40 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $199 +$189 +95%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $150 −$147 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $155 +$183 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $80 +$71 +88%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $70 +$54 +77%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 +$130 +262%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $149 +$177 +119%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $303 −$298 -99%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $100 −$12 -12%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $100 +$122 +122%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $149 +$161 +108%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $150 −$149 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $100 +$109 +110%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $99 −$98 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $249 −$245 -98%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$62 +124%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $150 +$287 +192%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $199 +$118 +60%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $249 +$30 +12%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$216 +216%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $159 −$157 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $196 +$18 +9%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $200 −$196 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $149 +$103 +70%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $149 −$147 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $152 +$154 +101%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 1 - 2 Liverpool FC? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mjallby AIF win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Jalen Duren: Points O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $132 −$132 -100%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ruud vs. Darderi: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $131 −$131 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $50 23m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $99 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $99 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $35 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND England vs. Cr BUY 7¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND England vs. Cr BUY 6¢ $21 2h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 70¢ $61 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 36¢ $100 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 64¢ $67 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 46¢ $39 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 46¢ $2 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 46¢ $2 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 46¢ $6 3h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 22¢ $50 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win BUY 7¢ $11 4h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 39¢ $100 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 32¢ $100 4h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 46¢ $100 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $155 15h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $151 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $50 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $50 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $124 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.50 · official $462.43 · 892 history records