Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf889…66ea
crypto · 46 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$10 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)37 / 46
History coverage146d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 9 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 26 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 26 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 22 $5 +$8 +146%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 21 $20 +$10 +51%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 21 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 23 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 19 Jan 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 22 $11 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 20 $6 +$4 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$17
crypto 45% −$44
sports 6% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 9h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 31h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 31h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 23d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 24d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 24d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $21 24d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -29.2% -35.9% 20% 20% -31.7%
≤30d 23 -1.4% -10.8% 43% 39% -3.4%
≤90d 23 -1.4% -10.8% 43% 39% -3.4%
all 37 -22.4% -29.8% 35% 32% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 32% -14.6%
10% -36.5% 27% -22.7%
15% -42.7% 27% -30.2%
20% -48.3% 22% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.31 · official $48.31 (match) · 85 history records