Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf88a…dfd6 sports 87 markets active 14h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$77 (-23%) realized −$78 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%29W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$15
14 days+$23
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$92
sports 34% +$2
world 19% +$6
other 9% +$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -21.6% -29.1% 14% 9% +35.4%
≤30d 39 +29.0% +16.7% 38% 36% +30.9%
≤90d 79 +7.9% -2.3% 37% 35% -32.4%
all 79 +7.9% -2.3% 37% 35% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 35% -32.4%
10% -11.7% 34% -38.8%
15% -20.2% 32% -44.8%
20% -28.0% 28% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses29 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)79 / 87
History coverage86d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+105%)
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -55%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$1 -63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 +$31 +754%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $3 $0 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$6 +314%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $2 −$1 -94%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $2 +$1 +84%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$1 +82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1 +$2 +177%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $9 −$8 -86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +57%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $1 +$3 +249%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $1 +$5 +468%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $1 $0 -6%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $1 +$1 +87%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $1 +$1 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $1 +$2 +149%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $6 +$5 +90%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 14 $7 −$3 -40%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $1 −$1 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $0 13h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 14h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 26¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $0 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 33¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $1 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $1 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 3d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $1 3d
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $3 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 16¢ $1 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 20¢ $1 5d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 7d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) SELL Knicks $0 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 56¢ $3 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 13¢ $1 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 31¢ $1 7d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.79 · official $12.79 (match) · 217 history records