Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

F8 0xf88a…11de sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$924 (-35%) realized −$924 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%6W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$109per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$18est.

Kalshi-fit54%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$64

7 days−$44

14 days−$44

30 days−$352

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+17.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+48.9%	+34.7%	29%	29%	-24.6%
≤30d	22	+42.1%	+28.6%	27%	27%	-35.7%
≤90d	22	+42.1%	+28.6%	27%	27%	-35.7%
all	24	+30.3%	+17.9%	25%	25%	-46.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.9%	25%	-46.0%
10%	+6.6%	25%	-51.2%
15%	-3.7%	25%	-55.9%
20%	-13.2%	21%	-60.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +92% → late -32% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$166 vs −$97 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.57 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$924

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses6 / 18

Est. fees paid−$18

Open positions0

Markets (closed)24 / 24

History coverage154d

Avg bet$109

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 24 Trades

no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$74	+73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5	Jun 17	$102	−$100	-98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$102	+$115	+113%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$182	+$91	+50%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Spread: Austria (-2.5)	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Jun 17	$102	+$184	+180%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$102	+$254	+248%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$152	−$150	-98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 13	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$102	−$100	-98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$254	+$279	+110%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$314	−$307	-98%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	Jan 14	$200	−$200	-100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Jan 14	$200	−$200	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	42¢	$102	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	100¢	$217	1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	46¢	$102	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$272	2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	66¢	$182	2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	48¢	$51	5h
Spread: Austria (-2.5)	BUY Austria	37¢	$51	18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	52¢	$101	18h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Norway	35¢	$102	25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$51	47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$51	47h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	28¢	$51	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	32¢	$51	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	16¢	$51	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	99¢	$353	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$102	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$102	3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	32¢	$102	4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	4¢	$31	4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	SELL Mexico	100¢	$533	6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	60¢	$101	6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	41¢	$153	6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	24¢	$123	18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	39¢	$190	18d
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	BUY Yes	48¢	$150	154d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records