Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F8 0xf88b…7b34 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$630 (-11%) realized −$630 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%27W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$764
other 1% +$67
sports 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +37.7% +24.6% 50% 50% +49.2%
≤30d 26 +29.9% +17.6% 54% 50% -12.7%
≤90d 53 +5.2% -4.8% 51% 47% -20.8%
all 53 +5.2% -4.8% 51% 47% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 47% -20.8%
10% -13.9% 43% -28.4%
15% -22.2% 42% -35.3%
20% -29.8% 34% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$92 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$630
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses27 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage68d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $26 −$24 -93%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 24 $40 +$67 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 06 $81 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $88 +$141 +159%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $34 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 01 $29 +$15 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 30 $319 −$319 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 30 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 30 $131 +$78 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 30 $84 +$185 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 30 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 30 $132 −$128 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 30 $32 +$156 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 30 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 30 $78 +$72 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 30 $46 +$38 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 30 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 30 $42 +$34 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 29 $30 +$30 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 29 $153 +$172 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $63 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 29 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 19 $121 −$116 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 19 $110 +$56 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 19 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 19 $50 +$67 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 19 $81 +$41 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 19 $58 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 19 $44 +$14 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 21? Apr 19 $53 −$6 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $84 −$27 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 19 $143 −$54 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 19 $493 −$493 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 19 $593 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 19 $150 +$64 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 19 $400 +$63 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 19 $200 +$85 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 18 $363 +$138 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 18 $60 +$36 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 18 $34 +$33 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 54m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $107 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $72 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $8 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $72 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $167 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $62 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $16 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY No 8¢ $34 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $43 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $43 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $29 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $259 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $60 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $32 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $208 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $131 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $53 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $132 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $14 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records