Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf88d…33d0 other 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-1%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%33W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$9
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$28
other 26% −$3
sports 10% +$10
economics 10% $0
finance 7% +$1
tech 3% −$35
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.6% -10.0% 22% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 29 -0.8% -10.3% 24% 3% -10.1%
≤90d 41 -0.9% -10.3% 34% 2% -10.2%
all 94 -2.0% -11.3% 35% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -10.1%
10% -19.8% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses33 / 61
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage455d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 40¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $264 +$6 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $132 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $250 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $119 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $118 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $240 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $113 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $118 +$2 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $238 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $254 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $152 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $120 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $120 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $121 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $125 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $126 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $494 −$2 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $181 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 30 $165 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $119 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $128 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $92 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $161 −$48 -30%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $4 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $172 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $122 +$13 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $6 $0 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $481 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $221 −$35 -16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $166 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $32 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $42 −$4 -10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $114 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 17 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $1,347 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $979 +$1 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $979 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $21 −$2 -11%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Dec 06 $12 $0 +3%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 19 $2 $0 -15%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 23 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $138 14m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 85¢ $132 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $28 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $104 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $132 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $132 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $132 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $132 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $132 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $120 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $119 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $107 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $12 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $119 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $119 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $117 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $118 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $118 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $46 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $60 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $78 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $61 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 361 history records