Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:41:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf892…5d7b world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$3
sports 16% −$1
politics 3% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 2% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 11 -2.0% -11.3% 27% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -2.0% -11.3% 27% 0% -10.3%
all 24 +1.0% -8.6% 46% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -10.2%
10% -17.3% 4% -18.8%
15% -25.3% 4% -26.6%
20% -32.6% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage482d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $39 −$2 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $72 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $35 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $75 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -10%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -7%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $6 $0 +4%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois Mar 04 $11 −$1 -6%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Mar 04 $14 −$4 -26%
Will Trump say 'Greenland' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $15 $0 -1%
Will Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Green Bay vs. Oakland Mar 04 $22 −$7 -34%
Louisiana vs. Troy Mar 04 $11 +$11 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $38 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $26 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $39 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $33 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $33 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $16 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $16 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $36 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 98¢ $35 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $37 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $39 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $36 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $36 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $3 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $2 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $0 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records