Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf895…fb74 sports 27 markets active 13d ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-33%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%17W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$11
sports 28% −$4
weather 15% −$11
other 15% −$8
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -35.8% -41.9% 38% 38% -65.7%
≤90d 8 -35.8% -41.9% 38% 38% -65.7%
all 27 -19.1% -26.8% 63% 44% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 44% -39.9%
10% -33.8% 22% -45.7%
15% -40.2% 15% -50.9%
20% -46.1% 11% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage575d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Nuggets vs. Kings Dec 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Heat vs. Pistons Dec 17 $3 $0 +12%
Mavericks vs. Warriors Dec 16 $3 $0 +12%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-15? Dec 15 $11 −$8 -75%
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan Dec 15 $2 −$2 -86%
Rockets vs. Thunder Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Everton win on 2024-12-14? Dec 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-14? Dec 15 $2 $0 +9%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 14 $1 +$1 +49%
Rams vs. 49ers Dec 13 $1 $0 +16%
Hawks vs. Knicks Dec 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Thunder Dec 11 $1 $0 +10%
Knicks vs. Raptors Dec 10 $1 $0 +20%
Rockets vs. Clippers Dec 09 $0 $0 +19%
Nuggets vs. Hawks Dec 09 $0 $0 +25%
Will Leicester win on 2024-12-08? Dec 08 $0 $0 +22%
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? Dec 08 $14 −$14 -98%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 07 $14 $0 +2%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Nov 25 $11 +$3 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes $1 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 62¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 61¢ $1 17d
Nuggets vs. Kings BUY Kings 68¢ $3 559d
Heat vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 89¢ $3 559d
Mavericks vs. Warriors BUY Mavericks 89¢ $3 560d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-15? SELL No 20¢ $3 561d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-15? BUY No 79¢ $11 561d
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan BUY South Alabama 94¢ $0 561d
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan SELL Western Michigan $0 561d
Rockets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 100¢ $10 561d
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan BUY Western Michigan 67¢ $2 561d
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-14? BUY No 92¢ $2 562d
Will Everton win on 2024-12-14? BUY No 94¢ $2 562d
Pacers vs. 76ers BUY Pacers 67¢ $1 562d
Rams vs. 49ers BUY Rams 86¢ $1 563d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 81¢ $1 564d
Mavericks vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 91¢ $1 565d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 83¢ $1 566d
Rockets vs. Clippers BUY Rockets 84¢ $0 567d
Nuggets vs. Hawks SELL Nuggets 99¢ $0 567d
Nuggets vs. Hawks BUY Nuggets 79¢ $0 567d
Will Leicester win on 2024-12-08? BUY No 82¢ $0 568d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records