Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf898…deff sports 369 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$882 (+2%) realized +$817 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%164W / 204L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$356est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$491
7 days+$1,815
14 days+$2,626
30 days+$2,826
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$710
other 2% −$59
crypto 1% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +86.2% +68.4% 47% 47% +46.1%
≤30d 185 +5.0% -5.0% 42% 39% +2.9%
≤90d 292 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 41% -5.0%
all 368 -4.8% -13.8% 45% 42% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 42% -8.2%
10% -22.1% 35% -17.0%
15% -29.6% 32% -25.0%
20% -36.5% 25% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$69 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized+$817
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses164 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$356
Open positions1
Markets (closed)368 / 369
History coverage231d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 45¢ $439 $504 +$65 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 187 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $90 +$107 +119%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $85 +$150 +177%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $166 −$163 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $58 +$118 +203%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $90 +$245 +273%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $106 −$104 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $152 +$154 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $53 −$52 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $60 −$59 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $40 +$51 +128%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $51 +$57 +112%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $117 +$105 +90%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $12 +$108 +873%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $142 +$42 +30%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -77%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$50 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $211 +$250 +118%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $87 −$86 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $131 +$78 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $131 +$62 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $424 +$1,053 +248%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $159 −$156 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $92 +$117 +128%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$162 +162%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $96 −$94 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $130 −$128 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $94 −$92 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $479 +$839 +175%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $135 −$132 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 −$16 -16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $13 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $506 +$370 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $121 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 72¢ $196 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $67 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 18¢ $11 3h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 28¢ $55 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $235 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $31 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $34 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 20¢ $15 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $49 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $102 5h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $53 6h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $176 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 37¢ $25 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $33 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $0 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $335 7h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 26¢ $90 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 7¢ $10 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $14 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 31¢ $5 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 28¢ $10 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $15 8h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 10h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $33 11h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $67 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 12¢ $9 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.71 · official $503.71 (match) · 866 history records