Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf898…fffc
crypto · 307 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$8,819 -27%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,812 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,395
Realized−$8,812
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses197 / 578
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)775 / 307
History coverage1d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day3215.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 775 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,812
7 days−$8,812
14 days−$8,812
30 days−$8,812
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 47¢ 100¢ $189 $407 +$217 (+115%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 54¢ 100¢ $212 $390 +$178 (+84%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 35¢ 100¢ $101 $288 +$187 (+184%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 47¢ 100¢ $45 $96 +$51 (+113%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 37¢ 100¢ $25 $68 +$43 (+170%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 57¢ 100¢ $28 $50 +$21 (+75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 57¢ 100¢ $27 $48 +$21 (+75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 50¢ 84¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+68%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 57¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+75%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 57¢ 100¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+75%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 67¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 57¢ 16¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 87¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 67¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 57¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+75%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 57¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+75%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 37¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+170%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 47¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+113%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 57¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+75%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 37¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+170%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 47¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+113%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 47¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+113%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 87¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 27¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+270%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $189 +$217 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$187 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $149 −$149 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$43 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$21 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +270%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $383 −$383 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$621
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 775 -52.9% -57.4% 25% 21% -28.6%
≤30d 775 -52.9% -57.4% 25% 21% -28.6%
≤90d 775 -52.9% -57.4% 25% 21% -28.6%
all 775 -52.9% -57.4% 25% 21% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3215.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.4% 21% -28.6%
10% ← realistic here -61.5% 16% -35.4%
15% -65.2% 11% -41.7%
20% -68.6% 7% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,395.11 · official $1,382.96 (match) · 3500 history records