Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F8 0xf89d…cdae other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$67 (+8%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$18
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$38
crypto 32% +$69
sports 29% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -14.1% -22.3% 62% 50% -8.8%
≤30d 20 -10.1% -18.7% 60% 55% -8.7%
≤90d 20 -10.1% -18.7% 60% 55% -8.7%
all 20 -10.1% -18.7% 60% 55% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 55% -8.7%
10% -26.4% 40% -17.4%
15% -33.5% 40% -25.4%
20% -40.1% 20% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage14d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $76 +$78 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $102 +$39 +38%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $100 +$19 +19%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$37 +18%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 5h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 29h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 9d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 9d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 9d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 11d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 89¢ $10 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 13d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records