Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8a6…456c sports 193 markets active 3h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$189 (-6%) realized −$191 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%57W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$28
14 days−$5
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$188
other 6% −$47
world 0% +$28
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +9.0% -1.4% 19% 18% -1.5%
≤30d 169 +24.1% +12.3% 33% 32% -12.1%
≤90d 173 +21.9% +10.3% 33% 32% -16.4%
all 173 +21.9% +10.3% 33% 32% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.3% 32% -16.4%
10% -0.2% 29% -24.4%
15% -9.9% 25% -31.7%
20% -18.7% 24% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses57 / 116
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions19
Markets (closed)173 / 193
History coverage48d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 7¢ 29¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+301%)
Will Jordan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 3¢ 12¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+308%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+63%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Ireland 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Patsy Daughters 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Netherlands 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Under 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
ITF Tulsa: Maximus Dussault vs Ozan Baris Maximus Dussault 16¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will Nate Ament be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Haiti? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
ITF Luque: Caira Delfina Vega Guidino vs Luciana Moyano Caira Delfina Vega Guidino 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Ilyas Milad Fahim 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Lourinha: Alberto Barroso Campos vs Carl Emil Overbeck Jun 18 $2 −$1 -98%
ITF Irvine: William Kleege vs Spencer Johnson Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 +$7 +659%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$9 +873%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$12 +59%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina Jun 17 $2 +$36 +1914%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Dinard: Christina Bednarczyk vs Franziska Sziedat Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Klosters: Henry Bernet vs Jan Sebesta Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF Bucharest: Lavinia Tanasie vs Maria Valentina Pop Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Mohammedia: Clarissa Blomqvist vs Nour El Ouazzani Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Laurence Teunissen Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Diamonds - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
David Møller Wolfe: 2+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Patrick Wimmer: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Alessandro Schöpf: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Samu Costa: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Fiston Mayele: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Aymen Hussein: 2+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Michael Olise: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Jens Hauge: 3+ goals Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Warren Zaïre-Emery: 2+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Aymen Hussein: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ali Yousif: 2+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Marko Farji: 2+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Meme: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kevin Yakob: 2+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Marcus Thuram: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 3¢ $1 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 11¢ $1 3h
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina BUY Patsy Daughters 5¢ $1 3h
ITF Tulsa: Maximus Dussault vs Ozan Baris BUY Maximus Dussault 16¢ $1 3h
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Ilyas Milad Fahim 12¢ $1 3h
ITF Luque: Caira Delfina Vega Guidino vs Luciana Moyano BUY Caira Delfina Vega Guidino 7¢ $1 3h
ITF Lourinha: Alberto Barroso Campos vs Carl Emil Overbeck BUY Alberto Barroso Campos 13¢ $2 7h
ITF Irvine: William Kleege vs Spencer Johnson BUY William Kleege 4¢ $1 19h
Will Nate Ament be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19h
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 8¢ $0 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 19h
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 8¢ $0 19h
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 8¢ $0 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 20h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $32 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $20 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 51¢ $10 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 26h
ITF Dinard: Christina Bednarczyk vs Franziska Sziedat BUY Christina Bednarczyk 7¢ $1 28h
ITF Klosters: Henry Bernet vs Jan Sebesta BUY Jan Sebesta 7¢ $0 28h
ITF Klosters: Henry Bernet vs Jan Sebesta BUY Jan Sebesta 7¢ $1 28h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina BUY Mariya Yemshanova 4¢ $1 29h
ITF Bucharest: Lavinia Tanasie vs Maria Valentina Pop BUY Maria Valentina Pop 7¢ $1 29h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina BUY Mariya Yemshanova 6¢ $1 29h
ITF Klosters: Henry Bernet vs Jan Sebesta BUY Jan Sebesta 8¢ $1 29h
ITF Mohammedia: Clarissa Blomqvist vs Nour El Ouazzani BUY Nour El Ouazzani 11¢ $1 29h
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Laurence Teunissen BUY Laurence Teunissen 8¢ $0 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.72 · official $21.73 (match) · 350 history records