Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

F8 0xf8a8…f71c sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$89 (+7%) realized +$101 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$124per market

Trades / day3.5pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-40.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-34.0%	-40.3%	43%	43%	-23.2%
≤30d	7	-34.0%	-40.3%	43%	43%	-23.2%
≤90d	7	-34.0%	-40.3%	43%	43%	-23.2%
all	7	-34.0%	-40.3%	43%	43%	-23.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-40.3%	43%	-23.2%
10%	-46.0%	29%	-30.5%
15%	-51.2%	29%	-37.3%
20%	-56.0%	29%	-43.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -34% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$88 vs −$101 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$184

Realized+$101

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)7 / 10

History coverage3d

Avg bet$124

Trades / day3.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Under	43¢	42¢	$96	$92	−$3 (-3%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Under	52¢	48¢	$100	$91	−$9 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 25	$98	−$96	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$142	−$140	-99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5	Jun 25	$207	+$33	+16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$119	+$87	+73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$121	−$120	-99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$198	+$145	+73%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$50	−$49	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	43¢	$97	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$101	1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	37¢	$98	9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	63¢	$142	9h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5	BUY Under	86¢	$207	19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$207	19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$119	22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$121	22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-	BUY	34¢	$102	22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$343	22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$198	24h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$50	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.54 · official $183.54 (match) · 13 history records