Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8ad…c303 weather 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$962 (-2%) realized −$999 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate63%118W / 69L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$200est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,855now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$19
14 days−$501
30 days−$551
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$328
weather 23% −$713
other 22% +$189
politics 8% −$448
crypto 5% −$1,531
tech 5% +$1,990
economics 4% −$242
world 4% +$145
culture 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.9% -14.0% 67% 33% -10.0%
≤30d 91 +21.6% +10.0% 66% 40% -13.8%
≤90d 118 +14.4% +3.5% 68% 31% -13.0%
all 187 +5.1% -4.9% 63% 34% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 34% -11.6%
10% -14.0% 20% -20.1%
15% -22.3% 16% -27.8%
20% -30.0% 12% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$97 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$1,855
Realized−$999
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses118 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$200
Open positions3
Markets (closed)187 / 191
History coverage638d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $920 $915 −$5 (-1%)
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $482 $501 +$19 (+4%)
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $416 $439 +$23 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Jun 29 $627 +$6 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $1,004 −$20 -2%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $946 +$340 +36%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $63 +$3 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Jun 28 $347 −$341 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $470 +$40 +9%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh Jun 28 $194 −$10 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 +$12 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24? Jun 25 $23 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $123 +$102 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $71 −$56 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $97 +$76 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $38 +$10 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? Jun 21 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $28 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 19? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 −$22 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $44 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $55 +$17 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $58 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $222 +$33 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $352 +$30 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $632 −$630 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $96 +$51 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $95 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $208 −$207 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +476%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $41 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$11 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $415 −$385 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$11 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$82 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $237 +$13 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $37 +$35 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $22 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 99¢ $627 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 86¢ $984 23h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 87¢ $1,004 25h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 93¢ $13 29h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 93¢ $40 29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 40¢ $47 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 40¢ $41 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 40¢ $41 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 41¢ $50 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 40¢ $7 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 40¢ $3 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 40¢ $7 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 40¢ $9 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 39¢ $24 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 39¢ $6 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 40¢ $16 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 39¢ $9 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 39¢ $2 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 39¢ $20 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 39¢ $19 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 39¢ $47 31h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 95¢ $21 32h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 95¢ $1 32h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 95¢ $0 32h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 95¢ $42 32h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 95¢ $0 32h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 95¢ $0 32h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 92¢ $186 35h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 92¢ $283 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh SELL South Africa 93¢ $184 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,854.94 · official $1,854.77 (match) · 993 history records