Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8ae…4d6c politics 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 63L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$10
other 25% −$4
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 65 -2.2% -11.5% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage638d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $54 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Jack Eichel win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy Apr 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Nov 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Myles Garrett win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Ansem criminal charges in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sparta Prague win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Avail airdrop in 2024? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Michael Blake be the next DNC chair? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will James Fishback be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
240+ MPs vote to impeach Yoon? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 09 $0 $0 -4%
Will LaMelo Ball win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -5%
Will Nottingham Forest be relegated? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 1-5 months in gun case? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Trump's November 26 sentencing pushed back? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? Nov 17 $0 $0 -0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Nov 17 $0 $0 -0%
Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Seas Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jeff Clark for Attorney General? Nov 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Maxx Crosby win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Nov 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration? Nov 12 $1 $0 -2%
Trump convicted of another felony before election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting? Oct 09 $2,012 −$2 -0%
Will a Democrat win Vermont Presidential Election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Pr Oct 09 $2,014 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 15h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $54 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $54 5d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $55 72d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $55 72d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 77d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 77d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 79d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 80d
Will Jack Eichel win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy SELL No 100¢ $53 86d
Will Jack Eichel win the 2025–2026 NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy BUY No 100¢ $53 157d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb SELL No 100¢ $54 217d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb BUY No 100¢ $54 253d
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024? SELL No 98¢ $0 555d
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024? BUY No 99¢ $0 555d
Avail airdrop in 2024? SELL No 98¢ $1 555d
Avail airdrop in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $1 555d
Will Michael Blake be the next DNC chair? SELL No 98¢ $1 555d
Will Michael Blake be the next DNC chair? BUY No 98¢ $1 555d
Will James Fishback be appointed as the next Florida senator? SELL No 99¢ $0 566d
Will James Fishback be appointed as the next Florida senator? BUY No 100¢ $0 566d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $1 566d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $1 566d
240+ MPs vote to impeach Yoon? SELL No 95¢ $0 566d
240+ MPs vote to impeach Yoon? BUY No 95¢ $0 566d
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $0 566d
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $0 566d
Will LaMelo Ball win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? SELL No 93¢ $1 566d
Will LaMelo Ball win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? BUY No 95¢ $1 566d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records