Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:54:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F8 0xf8b1…131f sports 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$150 (+10%) realized +$155 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%66W / 69L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$102
14 days+$123
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$47
other 32% +$112
crypto 3% −$40
world 1% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +3.5% -6.4% 49% 49% -0.9%
≤30d 135 +3.0% -6.8% 49% 48% -0.7%
≤90d 135 +3.0% -6.8% 49% 48% -0.7%
all 135 +3.0% -6.8% 49% 48% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 48% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 39% -10.2%
15% -23.9% 32% -18.9%
20% -31.4% 20% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses66 / 69
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions20
Markets (closed)135 / 155
History coverage15d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 37¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 77¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? No 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 78¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 59¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 51¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 37¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 71¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 54¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 53¢ 26¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 45¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $25 +$6 +25%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $18 +$18 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$5 -43%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$4 +23%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 +$40 +194%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -70%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $26 +$18 +70%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $26 +$27 +103%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 +$41 +100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$35 +666%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $7 −$6 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $27 −$26 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 +$90 +250%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$11 +220%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$8 +50%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +40%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $10 +$16 +158%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $46 −$39 -84%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $15 +$33 +215%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $21 +$20 +97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$3 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $28 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 94¢ $32 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $25 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $36 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 6¢ $6 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $18 7h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $19 7h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Juan Manuel Cerundolo 25¢ $3 12h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $5 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $5 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $5 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $5 13h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $5 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $5 13h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $5 13h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $5 13h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $5 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $5 13h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $5 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 45¢ $5 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 42h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 33¢ $5 44h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $5 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 51¢ $5 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $5 44h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $5 44h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $5 44h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 33¢ $5 44h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.21 · official $148.32 (match) · 472 history records