Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8b6…d353 sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,422 (+15%) realized +$1,368 · open +$54
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%69W / 77L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days+$685
30 days+$671
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$744
other 5% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -11.1% -19.5% 43% 38% -12.2%
≤30d 146 -0.9% -10.4% 47% 47% -1.7%
≤90d 146 -0.9% -10.4% 47% 47% -1.7%
all 146 -0.9% -10.4% 47% 47% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 47% -1.7%
10% -18.9% 45% -11.1%
15% -26.8% 43% -19.7%
20% -34.0% 38% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$40 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$954
Realized+$1,368
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses69 / 77
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions17
Markets (closed)146 / 164
History coverage23d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $151 $150 −$1 (-1%)
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Team Liquid 64¢ 76¢ $102 $122 +$19 (+19%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) T1 41¢ 100¢ $49 $120 +$71 (+144%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 66¢ 66¢ $106 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B Paper Rex 65¢ 64¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A EDward Gaming 59¢ 60¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C XLG Gaming 39¢ 36¢ $51 $46 −$5 (-9%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C Nongshim RedForce 48¢ 44¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage FaZe 58¢ 56¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Valorant: MIBR vs Global Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D Global Esports 42¢ 40¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C UCAM Esports Club 41¢ 40¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $21 −$9 (-31%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $19 −$11 (-36%)
Map Handicap: JL (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) Joblife 42¢ 42¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Edward Gaming win the EWC Valorant Tournament Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 25 $41 +$107 +259%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $42 −$41 -99%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group Jun 25 $25 +$35 +139%
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Spark (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Ame Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 25 $43 +$27 +65%
Barcelona vs. Valencia: O/U 174.5 Jun 24 $50 +$39 +78%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2 +$3 +101%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $33 +$27 +81%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$24 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Map Handicap: JL (-1.5) vs CGN Esports (+1.5) Jun 23 $42 +$78 +186%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $33 +$17 +50%
Valorant: Contra vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Seas Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 23 $35 −$34 -99%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America Sout Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 23 $32 −$31 -97%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $25 −$24 -99%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 23 $106 +$9 +8%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 21 $76 +$64 +85%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $301 +$130 +43%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $54 +$86 +158%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $86 +$154 +180%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $466 −$95 -20%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $206 +$68 +33%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $143 −$5 -4%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $39 +$198 +501%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $172 +$235 +136%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $54 +$56 +105%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $76 +$71 +93%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $111 +$109 +98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $165 −$58 -35%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $413 −$412 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $203 +$121 +60%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $142 +$98 +69%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $183 +$197 +107%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $53 −$52 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $71 −$6 -9%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $51 −$17 -32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $109 −$26 -24%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $140 −$38 -27%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $101 −$99 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 +$15 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $194 −$74 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C BUY XLG Gaming 39¢ $27 1h
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 64¢ $72 1h
Will Edward Gaming win the EWC Valorant Tournament BUY Yes $2 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Gr BUY Nongshim RedForce 48¢ $49 1h
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C BUY XLG Gaming 39¢ $24 1h
Valorant: MIBR vs Global Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D BUY Global Esports 42¢ $30 1h
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 64¢ $16 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $76 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $105 1h
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BUY FaZe 58¢ $41 1h
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 64¢ $15 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY 19¢ $100 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes $21 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $107 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $153 3h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) BUY T1 41¢ $50 3h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY UCAM Esports Club 41¢ $25 3h
Map Handicap: JL (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) BUY Joblife 42¢ $17 3h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL Nightblood Gaming 100¢ $148 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 3d
Valorant: Barça eSports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group SELL Barça eSports 100¢ $60 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 3d
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Spark (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: BUY University War 48¢ $29 4d
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Spark (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: BUY University War 48¢ $5 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 4d
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Nightblood Gaming 26¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $953.97 · official $1,051.58 · 442 history records