Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F8 0xf8ba…de0e crypto 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$156 (+4%) realized +$159 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%36W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$713now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$231
14 days+$156
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$176
crypto 12% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -27.1% -34.0% 33% 33% -1.3%
≤30d 87 -19.4% -27.1% 41% 38% -7.3%
≤90d 87 -19.4% -27.1% 41% 38% -7.3%
all 87 -19.4% -27.1% 41% 38% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 38% -7.3%
10% -34.1% 34% -16.2%
15% -40.5% 25% -24.3%
20% -46.3% 18% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$713
Realized+$159
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses36 / 51
Open positions5
Markets (closed)87 / 92
History coverage20d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $600 $597 −$3 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $29 −$20 -70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $507 +$55 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $204 +$113 +56%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $304 −$139 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +69%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -61%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -78%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $3 +$7 +213%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $507 +$55 +11%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$33 +642%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 +$62 +60%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +74%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $509 +$195 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$18 -30%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$6 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $101 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $42 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $506 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $304 22h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $203 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 49¢ $165 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $204 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $304 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $203 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $712.79 · official $712.79 (match) · 181 history records