Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:24:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf8bb…f9c0
other · 250 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$5,906 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,868 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,942
Realized+$5,868
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses158 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$3,247
Open positions27
Markets (closed)225 / 250
History coverage77d
Avg bet$1,390
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 27 History 225 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$733
7 days−$1,352
14 days−$1,245
30 days−$971
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $1,875 $1,938 +$62 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,069 $1,074 +$5 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $947 $970 +$23 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $936 $942 +$6 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 86¢ 82¢ $605 $577 −$28 (-5%)
Over $500M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 98¢ 99¢ $251 $253 +$2 (+1%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 76¢ $142 $152 +$10 (+7%)
Over $30M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 97¢ 99¢ $136 $138 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 63¢ 64¢ $131 $134 +$2 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $116 $118 +$2 (+2%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $89 $94 +$5 (+6%)
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 30¢ 24¢ $98 $78 −$20 (-20%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 75¢ $65 $75 +$10 (+15%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Relay FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 94¢ 58¢ $63 $39 −$24 (-38%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 88¢ 90¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Over $300M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 98¢ 99¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Over $200M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 97¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Relay FDV above $900M one day after launch? No 94¢ 51¢ $54 $29 −$25 (-46%)
Over $100M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 97¢ 99¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Relay FDV above $1.2B one day after launch? No 96¢ 54¢ $47 $26 −$21 (-44%)
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 78¢ 65¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+273%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? No 19¢ 6¢ $19 $6 −$14 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $394 +$5 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $990 −$738 -75%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 11 $549 −$243 -44%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $81 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026? Jun 08 $2 +$4 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $14 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? Jun 08 $44 −$31 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 27? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? Jun 08 $230 −$230 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27? Jun 08 $13 $0 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June? Jun 05 $62 −$3 -4%
Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch Jun 04 $34 +$11 +34%
Tea FDV above $500M one day after launch Jun 04 $527 +$14 +3%
Tea FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 04 $226 +$7 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,623 −$60 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $118 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 03 $100 +$5 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 2? Jun 02 $571 +$28 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,672 +$9 +0%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $60,000 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 2? Jun 02 $84 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethena dip to $0.08 in May? Jun 01 $190 $0 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.28 in May? Jun 01 $99 +$2 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $159 −$27 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% +$6,127
other 26% −$22
politics 23% +$243
finance 3% +$28
world 3% −$404
crypto 3% −$96
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $296 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 49¢ $25 4h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 85¢ $5 9h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 63¢ $3 14h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 63¢ $29 14h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 63¢ $158 14h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 64¢ $3 16h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 64¢ $28 16h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 80¢ $79 16h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $8 16h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY Yes 19¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $4 18h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $4 18h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 81¢ $81 19h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 84¢ $49 20h
Over $500M committed to the ALIGN public sale? BUY No 99¢ $48 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 16¢ $115 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 16¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 16¢ $11 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 16¢ $11 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 16¢ $7 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 16¢ $14 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 16¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $707 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $193 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -64.0% -67.4% 16% 6% -59.5%
≤30d 98 -2.1% -11.4% 59% 30% -10.3%
≤90d 225 +12.8% +2.1% 70% 27% -8.9%
all 225 +12.8% +2.1% 70% 27% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 27% -8.9%
10% -7.7% 19% -17.6%
15% ← realistic here -16.6% 16% -25.6%
20% -24.8% 15% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,941.91 · official $6,966.91 (match) · 3500 history records