Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F8 0xf8be…fbfa sports 209 markets active 11d ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$47 (+3%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%105W / 104L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 52% $0
sports 46% +$46
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +53.9% +39.2% 83% 83% +48.1%
≤90d 42 -17.8% -25.6% 43% 43% -14.5%
all 209 +2.2% -7.5% 50% 48% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 48% -6.4%
10% -16.4% 48% -15.4%
15% -24.5% 47% -23.6%
20% -31.9% 43% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses105 / 104
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 209
History coverage129d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions (100 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +72%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +84%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +63%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $3 +$2 +50%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 02 $2 +$3 +152%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 03 $8 +$6 +70%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 22 $3 +$2 +62%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 05 $2 +$3 +122%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Mar 29 $2 +$3 +212%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 29 $2 +$3 +122%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 27 $3 −$2 -52%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 27 $3 −$2 -52%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 25 $2 +$3 +122%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 25 $3 +$2 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 23 $3 +$2 +56%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 23 $3 +$2 +67%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 21 $3 +$2 +70%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Nets: O/U 214.5 Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Kings Mar 20 $3 +$2 +75%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $2 +$3 +113%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-14.5) Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Mar 16 $1 +$4 +300%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Suns vs. Raptors: O/U 218.5 Mar 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Mar 13 $2 +$3 +195%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 58¢ $3 10d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 54¢ $3 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 61¢ $3 10d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 26¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 66¢ $3 13d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 35¢ $2 31d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 39¢ $2 31d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 53¢ $3 35d
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) BUY Lakers 54¢ $3 40d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 29¢ $1 42d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 58¢ $8 51d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 55¢ $3 53d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 59¢ $3 53d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 53¢ $3 53d
Rockets vs. Warriors BUY Rockets 61¢ $3 70d
Lakers vs. Mavericks BUY Lakers 53¢ $3 70d
Hornets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 41¢ $2 70d
Raptors vs. Celtics BUY Raptors 22¢ $1 70d
Knicks vs. Thunder BUY Knicks 25¢ $1 77d
Celtics vs. Hornets BUY Celtics 45¢ $2 77d
76ers vs. Hornets BUY 76ers 32¢ $2 78d
Pistons vs. Timberwolves BUY Pistons 45¢ $2 78d
Heat vs. Cavaliers SELL Heat 33¢ $2 79d
Hawks vs. Celtics SELL Hawks 33¢ $2 79d
Heat vs. Cavaliers BUY Heat 34¢ $2 79d
Hawks vs. Celtics BUY Hawks 34¢ $2 79d
Heat vs. Cavaliers BUY Heat 34¢ $2 79d
Hawks vs. Celtics BUY Hawks 34¢ $2 79d
Raptors vs. Clippers BUY Raptors 39¢ $2 81d
Thunder vs. Celtics BUY Thunder 57¢ $3 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 409 history records