Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8c3…7d5f crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-5%) realized +$3 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -31.4% -37.9% 67% 0% -19.6%
≤30d 3 -31.4% -37.9% 67% 0% -19.6%
≤90d 3 -31.4% -37.9% 67% 0% -19.6%
all 3 -31.4% -37.9% 67% 0% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 0% -19.6%
10% -43.9% 0% -27.3%
15% -49.3% 0% -34.3%
20% -54.2% 0% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Up 50¢ 38¢ $32 $25 −$7 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $35 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.64 · official $23.36 · 7 history records