Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8c8…67a5 other 322 markets active 2h ago coverage 1201d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4,129 (+22%) realized +$4,155 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate68%215W / 99L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$12
14 days+$2
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$4,687
crypto 9% −$468
sports 4% −$129
politics 1% +$66
economics 1% −$14
world 1% −$26
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +20.5% +9.0% 67% 50% +19.2%
≤30d 14 +5.9% -4.2% 79% 43% -6.7%
≤90d 58 +2.8% -7.0% 88% 24% -8.0%
all 314 -3.8% -12.9% 68% 35% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 35% +11.0%
10% -21.3% 22% +0.3%
15% -28.9% 14% -9.4%
20% -35.8% 10% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$17 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1201d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$4,155
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses215 / 99
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)314 / 322
History coverage1201d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? No 98¢ 96¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-80%)
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Will Jonathan David record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $10 +$14 +135%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1 +$2 +168%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $10 +$1 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $40 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $30 +$3 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 14 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $98 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 11 $5 $0 +3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $13 +$8 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $70 +$5 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $50 +$3 +5%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $11 +$2 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? May 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $5 $0 -2%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $10 +$1 +7%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Cameron Norrie Apr 29 $5 $0 +3%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 29 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $98 $0 +0%
Madrid Open: Terence Atmane vs Alexander Zverev Apr 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $92 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $89 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $24 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 76¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 26¢ $20 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 10d
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Jonathan David record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10d
Will Jonathan David record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 10d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 10d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 10d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 10d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $62 24d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 79¢ $5 26d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 26d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 28d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $10 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner 98¢ $20 32d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $81 32d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $80 33d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.57 · official $66.44 (match) · 803 history records