Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf8cc…028a
other · 139 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$380 +38%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$350 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$82
Realized+$350
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses57 / 52
Open positions37
Markets (closed)109 / 139
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day319.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit31%
Chart Positions 37 History 109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$326
14 days+$350
30 days+$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+150%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-66%)
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+40%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-56%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-58%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 9¢ 31¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+247%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $10 −$11 -108%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $8 +$8 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 12 $9 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 12 $16 +$9 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $17 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +101%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $22 +$14 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $8 +$16 +186%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $18 +$5 +30%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -74%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -20%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $55 +$29 +53%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $8 −$3 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $7 +$11 +174%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $8 +$215 +2816%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $18 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $9 −$3 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 72% +$79
politics 17% +$222
tech 5% +$29
finance 5% −$2
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 8¢ $2 18m
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 8¢ $2 24m
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 5¢ $2 24m
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 5¢ $1 24m
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 43m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 43m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 57m
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 57m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +42.8% +29.2% 50% 42% +22.8%
≤30d 109 +41.2% +27.8% 52% 44% +22.9%
≤90d 109 +41.2% +27.8% 52% 44% +22.9%
all 109 +41.2% +27.8% 52% 44% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover319.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.8% 44% +22.9%
10% ← realistic here +15.5% 36% +11.1%
15% +4.4% 28% +0.4%
20% -5.9% 22% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.55 · official $81.81 (match) · 3500 history records