Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:50:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F8 0xf8d0…cb43 other 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$36 (+6%) realized +$35 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%35W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$42
crypto 12% −$31
sports 7% +$21
world 1% +$2
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +52.2% +37.7% 100% 100% +37.7%
≤30d 3 +197.0% +168.7% 100% 100% +53.7%
≤90d 17 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 53% +30.3%
all 85 -24.5% -31.7% 41% 40% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 40% -3.7%
10% -38.2% 39% -12.9%
15% -44.2% 33% -21.3%
20% -49.7% 26% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses35 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage117d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $169 +$88 +52%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 +$6 +59%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $8 +$36 +480%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-03-26? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $3 $0 +11%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $4 +$4 +96%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $6 +$3 +43%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 05 $8 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 23 $2 +$1 +70%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elche CF vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-03-21? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $4 +$2 +53%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $3 +$1 +42%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 22 $1 $0 +36%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 22 $2 +$1 +57%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $3 +$5 +163%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $5 +$6 +113%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 +$2 +43%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $2 +$5 +257%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $5 +$5 +100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $7 +$7 +99%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $11 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $35 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $169 36h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 28¢ $44 27d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 78d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 78d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 78d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 78d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 93d
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 93d
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 93d
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-04-02? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 93d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 90¢ $3 93d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 93d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 93d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 93d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 93d
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 93d
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 94d
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 94d
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 94d
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 94d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 94d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 94d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 94d
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 94d
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 94d
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 94d
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.53 · official $70.53 (match) · 190 history records